CONSOLIDATING ON INFLATION MODERATION IN THE FACE OF NEW THREATS
The latest Consumer Price Index, showing a deceleration in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate to 15.06% in February 2026 from 15.10% in January 2026, is a positive development. This marginal decline, alongside the significant drop from 26.27% recorded in February 2025, reflects a gradual easing of inflationary pressures in the economy.
However, the Chamber notes that underlying inflation risks remain significant. The month-on-month inflation rate rose to 2.01% in February, after contracting in January, indicating that price pressures remain persistent. In addition, food prices remain the major driver of inflation, reflecting structural challenges in Nigeria’s food supply chain, high logistics costs, and production constraints.
From the perspective of the organized private sector, the slight moderation in inflation offers cautious optimism for businesses and households, as high inflation has significantly eroded purchasing power, increased production costs, and weakened consumer demand across several sectors.
Nevertheless, the Chamber warns that several emerging domestic and global risks could reverse the deceleration gains we have recorded in recent months. Rising geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict in the Middle East could trigger volatility in global energy markets, potentially increasing fuel, transportation, and logistics costs. Nigeria has an opportunity to partially insulate itself from volatile oil prices in international markets by expanding local refining capacity and boosting crude supply to local refineries to meet local needs.
With the risk of exchange-rate volatility amid disruptions to global supply chains, renewed pressure in the foreign exchange market could increase the cost of imported raw materials, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and food items, thereby pushing up production and consumer prices. In addition, insecurity in food-producing regions, Climate-related disruptions, and high transportation costs continue to threaten food supply and price stability.
The Chamber, therefore, emphasizes that deliberate policy actions are required to sustain the current inflation moderation. The government should prioritize exchange-rate stability by improving foreign exchange liquidity and boosting non-oil export earnings. Strengthening food security through improved agricultural productivity, addressing insecurity in farming communities, and investing in storage and logistics infrastructure will also help moderate food prices.
Furthermore, accelerated reforms in the power and energy sectors are critical to lowering production costs for businesses. Reliable electricity supply and improved energy infrastructure would significantly reduce cost pressures across manufacturing, trade, and services.
The LCCI also stresses the need for greater efficiency in transportation and trade infrastructure, including improvements to port operations, cargo evacuation systems, and digital trade processes, to reduce logistics costs that significantly contribute to consumer prices.
While the marginal decline in inflation is encouraging, the Chamber stresses that sustaining this trend will depend on consistent macroeconomic management, structural reforms, and policies that enhance domestic productivity.
Urgent actions are needed to assuage the fears in many quarters that price pressures will reverse the deceleration of our inflation rate. The month-on-month inflation rates since the start of this year already indicate a fragile grip on inflationary pressures. Supply-side interventions will be more realistic than price controls imposed on manufacturers and investors.
Dr. Chinyere Almona, FCA
Director-General
Lagos Chamber of Commerce & Industry
Monday 16th March 2026
