LCCI STATEMENT ON JANUARY INFLATION 2026
DISINFLATION: SIGNAL, NOT YET STRUCTURAL STABILITY
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) take note of the latest inflation data released by the NBS indicating a marginal moderation in headline inflation. While the outcome reflects an easing in short-term price momentum, LCCI considers the trend to be disinflationary but fragile, driven by a combination of cyclical, base-effect, and policy-induced factors rather than deep structural adjustment.
From a decomposition standpoint, the slowdown is largely attributable to food price deceleration, exchange rate appreciation, and relative stability in domestic energy prices. The reduction in food inflation reflects improved post-harvest supply conditions and demand normalization after the festive period. Exchange rate gains moderated imported inflation and FX-pass-through into the core basket, while stable PMS pricing reduced second-round transport and logistics effects. These developments jointly lowered headline pressure in the short run and improved inflation expectations at the margin.
However, LCCI observes that a non-trivial portion of the year-on-year decline is influenced by base effects arising from CPI rebasing and a lower comparison benchmark, implying that the headline improvement partly reflects statistical normalization rather than a durable contraction in underlying cost drivers. This interpretation is reinforced by the persistence of elevated core inflation, which signals those structural pressures from electricity tariffs, transport costs, rents, and imported intermediate inputs remain embedded in the price system.
From a business-cycle perspective, the current inflation outcome suggests a transition from an acceleration phase to a disinflation phase, but not yet to price stability. The economy remains vulnerable to upside inflation risks from food supply disruptions, climate variability, insecurity in agricultural belts, oil price volatility, and renewed exchange rate pressure. Consequently, the present moderation should be interpreted as a temporary easing of inflationary momentum, not yet a convergence toward a low and stable inflation regime.
For the private sector, the emerging trend improves short-term price predictability and slightly reduces cost volatility, supporting inventory planning and near-term pricing strategies. Nonetheless, with inflation still elevated in real terms, borrowing costs remain distortionary, margins remain compressed, and long-term investment decisions continue to face high macroeconomic uncertainty. The current environment therefore supports tactical planning rather than strategic risk-taking, pending stronger confirmation of sustained disinflation.
LCCI Position: Stakeholder Actions
- Government should prioritize supply-side measures, agriculture, logistics, energy, and FX market transparency.
- Monetary Authorities should balance inflation control with growth; avoid excessive tightening that raises real costs.
- Private Sector should strengthen local sourcing, supply-chain efficiency, and disciplined pricing.
- Investors & Partners should focus capital on food systems, energy, manufacturing, and infrastructure to reduce structural inflation.
The Chamber characterizes the latest inflation outcome as a disinflationary signal rather than a structural turning point. The moderation reflects temporary alignment of food supply recovery, exchange rate stability, and energy price calm, reinforced by base effects. While this improves near-term business confidence, inflation remains structurally elevated and vulnerable to supply and FX shocks.
Policy credibility in 2026 will depend not on headline inflation prints alone, but on the speed with which Nigeria converts cyclical disinflation into structural price stability through productivity, logistics efficiency, and macroeconomic coordination.
Dr. Chinyere Almona, FCA
Director-General
Lagos Chamber of Commerce & Industry
Tuesday 17th February 2026
